Interest rates · updated 7 Oct 2026
RBA interest rate forecast: will rates keep rising?
The cash rate is 4.60% after the Reserve Bank's fourth rise of 2026 on 29 September 2026. The next decision is 3 November 2026. On the settings below, the model reads hold at 4.60% in November and a cash rate of 4.10% in 12 months, which would make repayments on a $650,000 loan $3,893 a month (-$211). Move the sliders to test your own view.
Your scenario
3 Nov 2026 decision
Hold at 4.60%
The rule rate is 0.07 points below the cash rate.
Pressure is down: 4.10% in 12 months
| Cash rate in 12 months | 4.10% |
|---|---|
| Cash rate, end of 2027 | 4.10% |
| Peak / low on this path | 4.60% / 4.10% |
| Your repayment now | $4,104 |
| In 12 months | $3,893 |
Open this rate in the mortgage calculator What this path means for house prices
- Actual cash rate
- Modelled path
- Where the rule says it should be
The modelled path, meeting by meeting
| Meeting | Rule rate | Model call | Cash rate after |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | 4.53% | Hold | 4.60% |
| 8 Dec 2026 | 4.45% | Hold | 4.60% |
| 2 Feb 2027 (date assumed) | 4.31% | Cut | 4.35% |
| 16 Mar 2027 (date assumed) | 4.21% | Hold | 4.35% |
| 4 May 2027 (date assumed) | 4.11% | Hold | 4.35% |
| 15 June 2027 (date assumed) | 4.06% | Cut | 4.10% |
| 10 Aug 2027 (date assumed) | 3.99% | Hold | 4.10% |
| 28 Sept 2027 (date assumed) | 3.94% | Hold | 4.10% |
| 2 Nov 2027 (date assumed) | 3.91% | Hold | 4.10% |
| 7 Dec 2027 (date assumed) | 3.87% | Hold | 4.10% |
What the big four banks expect in November
| Bank | Call for 3 Nov 2026 |
|---|---|
| ANZ | Hike to 4.85% |
| Westpac | Hike to 4.85% |
| CBA | Hold at 4.60% |
| NAB | Hold at 4.60% |
Source: Aussie, expert predictions for the November 2026 decision. Bank calls change; check the bank's latest note before relying on one.
The data that will decide it
| Indicator | Latest | Next release |
|---|---|---|
| Trimmed mean inflation (annual) (August 2026) | 3.6% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Headline CPI (annual) (August 2026) | 4% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Unemployment rate (August 2026) | 4.6% | Monthly |
| Wage growth (WPI, annual) (RBA forecast, December 2026) | 3.3% | 18 Nov 2026 |
Watch the September CPI on 28 October 2026. It lands six days before the November meeting and is the one figure most likely to move the decision. The RBA has said it will raise rates further "if needed" to bring inflation back to target. Set the inflation slider to the trimmed mean that release shows, and the model updates its call.
The RBA's own forecasts
| Period | Trimmed mean | Unemployment | Cash rate assumed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2026 | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| Jun 2027 | 3% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Dec 2027 | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Jun 2028 | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% |
Source: RBA, Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026. The cash rate column was the market path in early August, before the September rise; the RBA said even that path sat "a bit above the top of the range of estimates of the neutral cash rate".
Every rate decision in 2026, and what it cost
| Decision | Change | Cash rate | Monthly cost on $650,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | +0.25 | 3.85% | +$103 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | +0.25 | 4.10% | +$104 |
| 5 May 2026 | +0.25 | 4.35% | +$105 |
| 29 Sept 2026 | +0.25 | 4.60% | +$106 |
| Since January 2026 | +1.00 | 4.60% | +$418 |
30-year principal and interest loan, assuming each rise was passed on in full and the variable rate sat 1.89 points above the cash rate throughout. Holds in June and August are not listed. Meeting dates: RBA.
Common questions
What is the RBA cash rate now?
4.60%, after the Reserve Bank raised it by 0.25 percentage points on 29 September 2026. It was the fourth rise of 2026 and the highest level in about 15 years.
When is the next RBA interest rate decision?
3 November 2026, announced at 2:30pm Sydney time. The September quarter CPI, the last big data release before it, comes out on 28 October 2026.
Will interest rates go up in November 2026?
The big four are split: ANZ and Westpac expect a rise to 4.85%, CBA and NAB expect a hold. On the RBA's own August forecasts, our model puts the rule rate 0.07 points below the cash rate, inside the band where the RBA usually waits, so it reads as a hold. A September inflation figure above the RBA's forecast would tip it towards a rise.
How much will a 0.25% rate rise add to my mortgage repayments?
About $107 a month on a $650,000 loan over 30 years at the current average variable rate of 6.49%. As a rule of thumb, roughly $16 a month for every $100,000 borrowed.
How the model works
It is a forward-looking Taylor rule, the standard description of how inflation-targeting central banks set rates:
rule rate = neutral real rate + expected inflation + response × (expected inflation − 2.5) + 1.0 × (4.5 − unemployment)
- Expected inflation is the path's value six months ahead, because rates work with a lag. Inflation moves in a straight line from today's 3.6% to your 12-month figure, then halves its distance to 2.5% each year.
- 4.5% is the assumed unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation. Unemployment below it pushes the rule rate up.
- At each meeting the RBA moves 0.25 points towards the rule rate, but only if it is at least 0.25 points away. Closer than that, it holds. It never moves 0.5 at once.
- Mortgage rates are the cash rate plus 1.89 points (Canstar's average variable rate after September), so every move is assumed passed on in full.
- It knows nothing about oil shocks, global markets, the exchange rate or what the Board says in its statements. Real decisions weigh all of those.
A scenario tool, not a forecast and not financial advice. It shows what a simple, published rule implies for the assumptions you choose. Consider advice from a licensed professional before acting on it. See our methodology.